NFL playoff picture: Bills and Seahawks clinch spots, and what the Rams' loss means (2024)

Of all the things we thought might shake up the NFL playoff picture, a victory by the previously winless Jets wasn't high on the list. But that's exactly what happened Sunday, and it's enough to check in right away with this update of the league's playoff race.

The Jets' 23-20 win over the Rams shook up the NFC West. When the dust settled, the Seahawks were atop the division and in position to clinch it as early as next weekend.

Here are the full postseason outlook and clinching scenarios that lie ahead, along with analysis from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).

Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, Y shows a team that has clinched its division and Z indicates a team that has secured a first-round bye.

Jump to: AFC | NFC

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) -- Y

The Chiefs won a physical game in New Orleans, adding to their case as the top team in football. But Buffalo's win on Saturday at Denver meant the Chiefs wouldn't be able to clinch home-field advantage in the AFC this weekend regardless of how their own game went. However, FPI considers it just a matter of time. The Chiefs are holding a 96% chance to finish the season atop the conference.

Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, vs. Chargers

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) -- X

Despite two consecutive losses, the Steelers clinched a playoff spot in Week 14, and they can secure the AFC North title with a win and/or a Browns loss in Week 15. Even if the Steelers lose to Cincinnati on Monday night, FPI gives them a 95% chance to win the division. Their chances to overtake the Chiefs, however, are bleak. FPI puts the Steelers at 9% to do so if they win Monday.

Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Colts, at Browns

3. Buffalo Bills (11-3) -- Y

Saturday's victory in Denver did the trick for the Bills, who are now AFC East champions for the first time since Jim Kelly was their starting quarterback in 1995. Now the question is whether they can overtake the Steelers and Chiefs for the top spot in the conference. The short version: It's highly unlikely. FPI gives them a 0.7% chance. They have a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Steelers but not with the Chiefs, whom they lost to in Week 6.

Regardless, the Bills will be a very difficult out in the playoffs. They have won seven of their past eight games, losing only when the Cardinals connected on a Hail Mary in Week 10.

Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Dolphins

4. Tennessee Titans (10-4)

The Titans maintained their hold on first place in the AFC South by dispatching the Lions and notching their first 10-win season in 12 years. The bad news now is that they face a more difficult task in Week 16, when they'll play at the Green Bay. The good news is that the Colts, whom they are trying to hold off for the division title, have a similarly tough task at Pittsburgh.

The Titans could clinch the division next week if they beat the Packers and the Colts lose to the Steelers, and overall, FPI is giving them a 59% chance to win the division by the end of Week 17.

Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Texans

5. Indianapolis Colts (10-4)

The Colts might not be able to catch the Titans -- who are holding a division-record tiebreaker over them -- but they are stacking wins in a way that will make them a scary playoff opponent whether it's as a division winner or wild-card team. Sunday's win over the Texans means they have won three consecutive games and five of their past six. That momentum will be tested in Week 16 at Pittsburgh.

For what it's worth, FPI is giving them a 41% chance to win the AFC South.

Remaining schedule: at Steelers, vs. Jaguars

6. Cleveland Browns (9-4)

Oh man. The truth is that the Browns' wild loss Monday night didn't hurt their playoff chances nearly as much as it helped the Ravens'. Barring a total collapse over their final three games, the Browns are going to the playoffs.

They can't clinch a spot this weekend, but FPI gives them a 95% chance to do so eventually if they win Sunday, and a 68% chance if they lose.

Remaining schedule: at Giants, at Jets, vs. Steelers

7. Miami Dolphins (9-5)

Sunday's victory over the Patriots guaranteed the Dolphins' second winning season in the past 12 years. It also allowed them to hold off the surging Ravens in the wild-card race; they are ahead at the moment because of a half-game lead in the conference-record tie-breaker.

The Dolphins finish the season with two road games, although it appears they will get the Raiders at a good time, and it's possible the Bills will have nothing to play for in Week 17. Regardless, FPI doesn't like their chances of holding off the Ravens and is putting their playoff chances at 43%.

Remaining schedule: at Raiders, at Bills

Also in the AFC mix

Baltimore Ravens (9-5): Three consecutive victories have the Ravens pushing hard against the Dolphins and in position to capitalize on any collapse by the Browns, Titans and/or Colts. FPI is giving them an 88% chance of finding a way to the playoffs.

Las Vegas Raiders (7-7): The Raiders' chances to make the playoffs all but disappeared on Thursday night after a ridiculous overtime loss to the Chargers. Their FPI chances as of Sunday afternoon were 3%.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (11-3) -- Y

Are the Packers about to put some additional distance between themselves and the Saints? The first part of that process occurred Saturday night, when the Packers controlled the Panthers at Lambeau Field. The second part took place Sunday, when the Saints lost a physical game to the Chiefs. That outcome meant the Packers are in position to clinch home-field advantage as early as Week 16.

Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Bears

2. New Orleans Saints (10-4) -- X

The Saints had several avenues for clinching the NFC South this weekend, but none of them materialized. They needed either a win Sunday over the Chiefs, a loss by the Buccaneers to the Falcons or for both games to end in a tie. But the Saints could still clinch the division as early as Friday if they beat the Vikings in a Christmas Day game.

Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Panthers

3. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) -- X

What an unexpected surprise Sunday brought for the Seahawks! They're back in first place in the NFC West, courtesy of the Rams' stunning home loss to the Jets in addition to Seattle's own victory in Washington. They have clinched at least a playoff spot and can secure the division title by beating the Rams at home in Week 16.

Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at 49ers

4. Washington Football Team (6-8)

Washington made a game of it at home against the Seahawks, coming back from a 20-3 deficit to finish within one score. But the loss means Washington will drop behind the Giants in the NFC East if the Giants beat the Browns on Sunday night. One certain consequence of Sunday's game is that it ensured that the eventual division winner won't have a winning record. Prior to the Giants' result, FPI is still giving Washington a 59% chance to be that team.

Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Eagles

5. Los Angeles Rams (9-5)

What a disastrous day Sunday turned out to be for the Rams. To clinch a playoff spot, all they had to do was beat -- or tie! -- the winless Jets at home. Instead, they lost and now trail the Seahawks in the NFC West. The two teams face each other in Week 16, and the Seahawks can now clinch the division with a victory.

Still, the Rams are near-locks for a postseason spot. The only way they won't make it is if they lose their last two games, the Bears win their last two games, the Buccaneers win one of their last two games and the Cardinals defeat the 49ers in Week 16.

Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)

The Buccaneers' big comeback in Atlanta kept them squarely in the wild-card race, but they missed out on clinching a playoff spot because of the Bears' win in Minnesota. That could happen next week. And while they haven't been eliminated from the NFC South race, they're still essentially two games behind the Saints because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, they have two very winnable games to finish the season.

Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Falcons

7. Arizona Cardinals (8-6)

The Cardinals have now won two consecutive games after losing four of their previous five. They have been eliminated from the NFC West race, but they are hanging tough for a wild-card spot. If they had lost Sunday to the Eagles, the Cardinals would have flipped spots with the Bears. That's how close the race is at this point.

Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Rams

Also in the NFC mix

Chicago Bears (7-7): After defeating the Vikings in Minnesota, the Bears put themselves in the best position to pick off the Cardinals if they falter down the stretch.

Minnesota Vikings (6-8): The Vikings aren't eliminated yet, but their loss Sunday to the Bears means it will take a near-miracle to advance.

New York Giants (5-8): The Giants are in position if Washington stumbles, but they have a tough two-game stretch coming in the next two weeks, starting Sunday night against the Browns and followed by a matchup with the Ravens.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1): The Eagles aren't eliminated yet, and they have plenty to celebrate with the emergence of quarterback Jalen Hurts. But their chances to win the NFC East are bleak.

Dallas Cowboys (5-9): If you're in the NFC East, you're in the running for the playoffs. That's the best we can say about the Cowboys right now.